Tag / the new yorker

by Nathan Coumbe

AI isn’t taking your job

…at least not yet.

I use AI almost every day to assist with work and learn new topics (as part of my job) that I’m unfamiliar with. I read diligently to stay up-to-date on the latest developments, so I can learn how to use it more effectively.

AI will become (if it hasn’t already), and continue to be, a large portion of all of our lives.

However, we’re receiving a significant amount of misinformation about what’s happening and the effects it’s having on workers. Some of it is outright deception, while some is simply lazy reporting.

First, the deception.

The CEOs of these massive tech companies (e.g., Dario Amodei, Sam Altman) are brilliant business people who’ve created mind-boggling products. But they’re hemorrhaging cash trying to make their programs more powerful…

And after years of unbelievable growth and progress, they’re failing. The scaling law on which they used to project LLM growth is slowing down, and the improvements are now incremental, rather than exponential.

This is a serious financial problem for them. They need to keep their current investors engaged, and they need new investors to infuse them with additional capital. So what do they do?

They go on cable news shows or podcasts and claim that their AI software will replace all entry-level workers (10-20% of the workforce) within a matter of months.1 It just isn’t true.

But you wouldn’t know that from the news you’re consuming. They’ve bought into this story hook, line, and sinker.

Which brings me to my accusation of lazy reporting. Headlines like “Goodbye, $165,000 Tech Jobs” and “AI is Replacing 10 million Workers” (I made that one up) are attention-grabbing… But untrue.

These media companies, like the AI companies they write about, need to make money. They do that by getting as many eyes on their work as possible. And the best way to do that is to scare people into giving them attention… Even if the claims are untrue or misleading.

To paraphrase Ryan Holiday, who warned us about this years ago: “Trust them… They’re lying.”

It is true that computer science graduates are having a much harder time finding jobs at the moment. And it’s true that there have been massive layoffs in the tech sector.

It’s also true that the companies doing these layoffs are investing more of their money and efforts in AI. But AI is not the cause of this, nor is it replacing those who’ve been laid off.

Here’s what’s actually happening:

During the pandemic, these tech companies went on a massive hiring spree—they simply overhired. Now they’re bloated, and the quickest way to reduce the bloat and (temporarily) increase shareholder value is to shed programmers left and right.

At the same time, the tech sector itself is contracting, which means there are fewer jobs for all the newly minted computer science graduates.

This has historical precedence. The same thing happened in 2008 during the financial crisis. And it happened before that during the dot-com bust at the turn of the century.

The number of people entering the computer science field fluctuates in response to the economy. There’s a tech boom, prompting more people to enter the field. Then the sector contracts, and all those people get laid off, which in turn reduces the number of people entering the field.

Until the next boom.

Contrary to what many journalists have written, these people aren’t being replaced by AI. They’re simply being let go because companies overhired during the pandemic or because the companies are refocusing on AI.

However, that refocus, coupled with layoffs and fewer job openings, has led them to conflate the two, concluding that these computer science graduates are being replaced by AI.

This simply isn’t true. That may happen in the 2030s, but it’s not happening right now.

I’ve been guilty of buying into this hysteria too, as you can see in my piece on job hunting in 2025. And I’m here to tell you I was wrong in what I wrote about AI replacing workers in that piece.

All that to say this: Read AI journalism with a healthy dose of skepticism right now. And take any apocalyptic predictions with a grain of salt.

  1. Dario Amodei actually said this in an interview with Anderson Cooper and, ironically, claimed to be worried about it… Which begs the question: if you’re worried about it, why do you continue to do it?

    Why doesn’t he just stop if it actually worries him? It’s his company. ↩︎
by Nathan Coumbe

Art and plumbing are more similar than you think

Zig Ziglar relates a story in one of his talks about a man traveling through Native American tribes early in the 20th Century. What the man discovered was not a single person he encountered in those tribes stuttered. 

This phenomenon fascinated him, but he could never find a reason why. Finally, he asked one of the elders in the tribe why this was so. The elder informed the man there was no word in their native language for “stutter.” 

No label, no problem. 

In a fantastic article in The New Yorker, the author writes about the phenomenon known as “writer’s block.” What’s most interesting is this problem is not world-wide. The idea did not penetrate Europe until the 1800s, and even today, most Europeans don’t know what it is. It seems to be almost strictly an American issue. 

No label, no problem. If you don’t have a way to identify something as a problem, it can’t be a problem. 

We are all creative at something. We don’t get blocked: we get scared that what we create isn’t good enough. We feel there is some ethereal muse that must speak to us before we can make anything worthwhile. 

That’s crap.

Seth Godin has, what I believe to be, the most profound podcast episode I’ve ever listened to called “No such thing (as writer’s block).” One of my favorite sayings in the episode is this: “plumbers don’t get plumber’s block.” No plumber says he’s feeling too overwhelmed or uncreative enough to fix a pipe. They just fix the pipe. Surgeons don’t wait until they hear the muse speak to them to operate – they practice their craft every day and perform when it’s time to perform. 

Your art, whether it’s writing, music, painting, communicating, or leading people, is a craft – it’s a trade! Like blacksmithing, welding, or some other trade, it’s something that you learn, practice each day, and use to make something. 

If you’re a writer – write! Every day. Write something. Set a timer for 30 minutes and write. If you can’t think of what to write, write “I can’t think of anything to write,” over and over again until a new thought pops into your head. When that thought pops into your head, write it down too. Don’t worry about it making sense, being fantastic, or winning a literary prize. Just write. 

Insert your own art into the statement above and adapt it to your own situation. 

You aren’t blocked – you’re scared. Don’t wait for the muse. Do your work. 

It’s a trade like any other. 

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