We don’t know if we’re living in the “before” times until after

On October 24, 2024, Isaac Saul wrote a piece in Tangle (one of the best political news outlets around) about then-candidate Donald Trump’s “enemy from within” controversy.

I wrote a short essay in response, criticizing some of Mr. Saul’s points. It’s a little dated now, but I wanted to share an edited version of my thoughts on this blog, as I thought they were well-reasoned (and my fears have not been allayed in the first three months of Mr. Trump’s second presidency).


You [Isaac Saul] wrote this: “But none of us are going to live through World War II Germany.” How do you know that? What makes you so certain?

You say that Applebaum opens herself up to criticism by claiming Trump is speaking like Hitler, Mussolini, and Stalin. And you imply that criticism is warranted because Trump didn’t round up and kill millions of people or make good on many of his claims the first time around. 

But you go on to say that, “Hitler did that before [emphasis mine] rounding up and killing millions of Jews.” Doesn’t that contradict the criticism? How do you know that Trump isn’t doing this before he deports 11 million people? Before he unleashes the military on US citizens and his political enemies? 

And let us not forget that Hitler also had a failed coup (The Beer Hall Putsch) years before being elected Chancellor and declaring himself Führer. Might January 6th have been Trump’s failed Beer Hall Putsch on his way to authoritarianism?

When you live in the “before” times, it’s hard to know what the “after” times will look like. So, we naturally (or at least I think we should) take people’s dangerous language at face value. 

Perhaps Trump didn’t do it the first time around because he had so many people keeping his worst impulses in check… I doubt he’ll have reasonable people like that the second go-around. He’s sure to fill his administration with sycophants and “yes men” because they’re the only ones who want anything to do with him anymore.

I’ve heard so many times that our system of checks and balances will keep an authoritarian dictator from taking over. 

I don’t believe that, and here’s why: Ancient Rome had checks and balances in its Senate. So did the governments of 1920s Italy and 1930s Germany. And they all fell to dictators. Caesar had massive popular support, and so did Hitler. They were practically handed their dictatorships.

The Jews of Nazi Germany also believed that they weren’t going to live through (what later became) WWII Nazi Germany either. They didn’t believe Hitler would make good on his claims because of the checks and balances their democracy had in place.

I’m quoting a German Jewish newspaper from February 2, 1933 (10 years before the “Final Solution”), which was quoted on page 23 of Timothy Snyder’s book On Tyranny:

“We do not subscribe to the view that Mr. Hitler and his friends, now finally in possession of the power they have so long desired, will implement the proposals circulating in [Nazi newspapers]; they will not suddenly deprive German Jews of their constitutional rights, nor enclose them in ghettos, nor subject them to the jealous and murderous impulses of the mob. They cannot do this because a number of crucial factors hold powers in check…and they clearly do not want to go down that road. When one acts as a European power, the whole atmosphere tends towards ethical reflection upon one’s better self and away from revisiting one’s earlier oppositional posture.”

That line: “When one acts as a European power…” could easily be rewritten as, “When one acts as an American…” Is it not some sort of “American Exceptionalism” to believe that “it can’t happen here?” 

Snyder goes on to write: 

“The mistake is to assume that rulers who came to power through institutions cannot change or destroy those very institutions—even when that is exactly what they have announced that they will do.”


Thanks for reading. I don’t often cover politics on this blog, but I thought it was worth sharing a little insight into my thoughts on this topic.

As is often the case with political issues I believe to be concerning, I hope I’m wrong.

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